The paper describes an empirical study of modeling and forecasting time series data of the area, average yield and Production of wheat crop in Egypt and Beni-Swef Governorate. The Box Jenkins ARIMA methodology has been used for forecasting. The objective of the research is to find an appropriate ARIMA model for forecasting for area, average yield and the production of wheat crop. The diagnostic checking has shown that ARIMA(0,2,1) is appropriate for the area in Egypt, random walk model for the average yield and ARIMA(1,1,1) for the production. But, in the case of Beni-Swef Governorate the linear trend model is the best forecast model for the area, ARIMA(0,1,2) is the best forecast model for the average yield and linear trend model for the production The forecasts from 2007-2008 to 2012-2013 are calculated based on the selected best model by using time series from 1982-1983 to 2006-2007, which the values for the forecasts for the area about 3.2182 million fedan in 2007/2008 and 3.511 million fedan in 2012/2013, the average yield 18.3404 ardab/fed in 2007/2008 and 19.9925 ardab/fed in 2012/2013 and the production 58.6243 million ardab in 2007/2008 and 68.3664 million ardab in 2012/2013 for Egypt. In the case of Beni-Swef Governorate, the area about 142713 fedan in 2007/2008 and 161124 fedan in 2012/2013, the average yield 21.8916 ardab/fed in 2007/2008 and 23.6585 ardab/fed in 2012/2013 and the production 2.890 million ardab in 2007/2008 and 3.364 million ardab in 2012/2013. These forecasts would be helpful for the policy makers to foresee ahead of time the future requirements of grain storage import and/or export and adopt appropriate measures in this regard.
Atia, A. A. M., & Atwa, M. H. (2009). FORECASTING FOR THE AREA, AVERAGE YIELD AND PRODUCTION OF WHEAT CROP IN EGYPT AND BENI-SWEF GOVERNORATE USING ARIMA MODELS. Fayoum Journal of Agricultural Research and Development, 23(1), 59-75. doi: 10.21608/fjard.2009.197015
MLA
Ahmed, A. M. Atia; Mohamed, H.M., Atwa. "FORECASTING FOR THE AREA, AVERAGE YIELD AND PRODUCTION OF WHEAT CROP IN EGYPT AND BENI-SWEF GOVERNORATE USING ARIMA MODELS", Fayoum Journal of Agricultural Research and Development, 23, 1, 2009, 59-75. doi: 10.21608/fjard.2009.197015
HARVARD
Atia, A. A. M., Atwa, M. H. (2009). 'FORECASTING FOR THE AREA, AVERAGE YIELD AND PRODUCTION OF WHEAT CROP IN EGYPT AND BENI-SWEF GOVERNORATE USING ARIMA MODELS', Fayoum Journal of Agricultural Research and Development, 23(1), pp. 59-75. doi: 10.21608/fjard.2009.197015
VANCOUVER
Atia, A. A. M., Atwa, M. H. FORECASTING FOR THE AREA, AVERAGE YIELD AND PRODUCTION OF WHEAT CROP IN EGYPT AND BENI-SWEF GOVERNORATE USING ARIMA MODELS. Fayoum Journal of Agricultural Research and Development, 2009; 23(1): 59-75. doi: 10.21608/fjard.2009.197015
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