ECONOMIC STUDY OF EDIBLE OILS AND FUTURE PREDICTION OF DEMAND IN EGYPT

Document Type : Research articles.

Author

Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Fayoum University.

Abstract

The plant production sector is amajor pillar of agricultural production,
with a value of about 164.15 billion pounds, representing about 57.35% of the
value of agricultural production amounting to about 287.51 billion pounds. the
value of oil crops is about 2.28 billion pounds, representing about 79% of the
value of agricultural production, representing about 1.38% of the value of
plant production.
In spite of the multiplicity of oil crops that can be cultivated, the area
of these crops does not exceed 2% of the crop area. the problem of the study is
the growing gap between the production and consumption of edible oils in
Egypt, due to the increase in the population rate higher than the rate of
increase in production of edibl oils.
Where the average domestic production of edible oils amounted to
181.1 thousand tons while the local consumption amounted to 1020.4
thousand tons, which means a gap of about 839,2 thousand tons as an average
for the period (2001-2015), the study aims to identify on the current status of
production and consumption of edible oils in Egypt, and forecast consumption
of edible oils .
The study relied on secondary data, it is also relied on the prediction of
the future consumption of edible oils by using the current consumption rates of
oils, and by knowing the population growth rates and the rates of growth of the
national income.
The results of the study indicate that the elasticity of the income
demand for edible oils is estimated at 0.444. This means that edible oils is
essential commodity, also shows that by increasing the national income by
1%, the quantities consumed of oils increasing by 0.444% .
Future consumption of edible oils was predicted in the future (2019,
2021, 2023 and 2025) which is 2224, 2494, 2797 and 3137 thousand tons
respectively. it is clear that there is an expected continuous increase in the
future consumption of edible oils, so decision-makers should take this into
consideration when putting productivity policies to cope with the expected
increase in consumption.

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